019
FXUS62 KKEY 101807
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
207 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (AROUND 30%)
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL ENSUE THURSDAY NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING NEAR 100F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY
WARRANT MENTION OF VCSH IN THE 18Z TAFS AT EYW FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE EXPLICIT TAFS AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL BE REEVALUATED AT THE 00Z AND 06Z STANDARD TAF ISSUANCES
LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
LOOKING AHEAD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO COLLAPSE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE CAG INDICATES THE KEYS WILL BE IN THE DOLDRUMS
BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE CENTERS. THE CAG ALSO IS PRIMED TO DIVERT
ADDITIONAL CARIBBEAN MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER
THIS WEEK. THE RESULT WOULD BE A COLLAPSE IN WIND SPEEDS, TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES, AND LOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WOULD BE LOCAL EFFECTS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES MEAN CLOUD LINE PATTERNS MAY DEVELOP, SEA AND LAND BREEZES
BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR, AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE WATER
CAN SET OFF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER END. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A BELOW AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL, ENJOY THE DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THEY LAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HIGHER AND CONFUSED SEAS, AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS WELL OVER
THE MEAN FORECAST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WOULD SUGGEST.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON, OWED TO THE PERIPHERAL MOISTURE
SURGE FROM A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING BREEZES TO SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE. AS THE GYRE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL ALSO SHIFT WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES, SUPPORTING
A DRIER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 89 81 / 50 30 30 10
MARATHON 88 81 89 81 / 50 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page