036
FXUS62 KKEY 110829
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
429 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (AROUND 30%)
THROUGH TODAY.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL ENSUE TONIGHT NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING NEAR 100F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PULSES
OF INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAYSIDE WATERS. SEASONABLY MUGGY
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. BREEZES HAVE SLACKENED TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE, WHICH MEANS THE AIR IS ABOUT TO FEEL A BIT MORE STAGNANT.
CIMSS MIMIC RETURNS CONTINUES TO ESTIMATE OVER 2 INCHES OF PWAT
WITHIN THE AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE KEYS. EVEN THOUGH GOES EAST
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HINT AT A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS PRIMED FOR SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED ALSO SUGGESTS A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF SEA
AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTIONS. THUS, OPTING TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF TRANSITION ACROSS FLORIDA
TODAY. A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE OVER THE YUCATAN CONTINUES TO
DIRECT MOISTURE-RICH AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE GYRE IS TRENDING WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
KEYS IS ON TRACK TO COLLAPSE WHILE THE CAG PULLS MOISTURE TOWARDS
MEXICO. THAT IMPLIES LIGHT BREEZES LATER THIS WEEK, ALL WHILE THE
CAG MEANDERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOISTURE TOTALS ARE NOT ON
TRACK TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY. MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE KEYS. MEANWHILE, A VERY DEEP
TROUGH IS PRIMED TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT
SUGGESTS THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF FLORIDA,
AND THUS LIGHT BREEZES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST
A LACK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE INTO THE FORECAST, BUT
IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME MESOSCALE EFFECTS BECOME IMPORTANT. LOCAL
SOURCES OF LIFT WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO GENERATE RAIN, AND
TROPICAL CLOUDS PRODUCE RAINFALL VERY EFFICIENTLY. THE ONLY
CERTAINTY IS THAT MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE ON TRACK TO CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK, AND WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE 100 DEGREE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE
KEYS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL START OF SUMMER IS NOT FOR ANOTHER ELEVEN
DAYS, SUMMERTIME WEATHER HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BREEZES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN MOVES WEST, AND BOTH FEATURES ARE
REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS. THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME IS PRIMED TO SHIFT WESTWARD,
WHICH WOULD DECREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MARITIME ZONES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE DECREASING TOWARDS 5
KNOTS. OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS, BUT
THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF NEARBY VCSH.
THUS, LEAVING VCSH OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 89 81 / 40 10 20 10
MARATHON 89 81 89 80 / 40 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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