977
FXUS62 KKEY 120252
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1052 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING
OR AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEVELOPING ISLAND CLOUD
LINE.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING NEAR 100F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
A MUGGY, SEASONABLE NIGHT IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
JUST BEFORE DINNER TIME, AN EXPANSIVE, BUT VERY THIN, CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPED FROM CUDJOE KEY AND EXTENDED TO THE WEST PAST THE
MARQUESAS KEYS. CLOUDLINES HAVE A HABIT OF SEEING WATERSPOUT
FORMATION, BUT WE DID NOT RECEIVE, NOR SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF,
WATERSPOUTS WITH THIS SPECIFIC CLOUDLINE. EVENTUALLY, SHOWERS
TAPERED OFF, AND WE ARE NOW LEFT WITH AN ECHO-FREE KBYX RADAR.
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OUR 00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR ALOFT OUTSIDE OF SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION BETWEEN 800MB AND 650MB (GIVE OR TAKE A FEW MB). LIGHT,
BACKING WINDS HAVEN'T FAVORED ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, AND
THESE SHOWER-FREE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN. OF
NOTE, THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDING CALCULATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.16"
WHICH IS JUST A TOUCH ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WITH THIS MUCH
MOISTURE, ANY AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT A
LACK OF ANY SORT OF LIFT MEANS THAT WE CAN MAINTAIN THE INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TONIGHT, AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS SEASONABLE, BUT STILL WARM AND MUGGY,
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 70S. THIS GIVES US HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 90F, BUT THE
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MERGING WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH EASTERLY
WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. OPTING TO KEEP TAFS DRY FOR NOW, BUT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST VCSH IF
DEEMED APPROPRIATE IN A FUTURE PACKAGE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1999, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.50" WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. A LOCAL CLIMATE REPORT SAYS THE RAIN FELL
IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS, AND THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCED WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH, AND
RESULTED IN MINOR DAMAGE ON STOCK ISLAND. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 89 81 90 / 10 20 10 10
MARATHON 81 89 80 89 / 20 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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