404
FXUS62 KKEY 130332
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1132 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING
OR AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEVELOPING ISLAND CLOUD
LINE.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING NEAR 100F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
OUR KBYX RADAR HAS SEEN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING TAPER
OFF ALREADY, BUT A NEW AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS JUST
POPPED UP TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS, SPECIFICALLY NEAR CUDJOE
KEY. THIS THUNDERSTORM FORMED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAD ORIGINATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SHARK POINT EARLIER
TONIGHT. AS WE ARE TYPING THIS EVENING UPDATE, THIS THUNDERSTORM
IS ALREADY STARTING TO DECAY. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING POINTS TO SOME
LOW TO MID LAYER DRY AIR, SOME OF IT POSSIBLY FROM BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF SOME SAL OVER THE GULF. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HELPED TO INSULATE THE KEYS, AND TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
MID 70S, AND SOME QUICK MATH GIVES US HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
90F. OVERALL, THIS EVENING IS LOOKING A LOT LIKE LAST NIGHT, WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE
CHANGE.
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE ASCENT, AND THE HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE, CARRYING A SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES
MAY ONLY COME DOWN A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE WAXING AND
WANING CLOUD COVER ALOFT. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE A LAYER OF DRY AIR LINGERS IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH A BKN TO
OVC DECK NEAR FL130. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW, NEAR 10 PERCENT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PACKAGE, BUT ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO POP UP SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
DELAYS.
OF NOTE
ON THIS DAY IN 2002, A DAILY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.29" WAS RECORDED
AT PENNEKAMP STATE PARK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 89 81 89 / 10 20 10 10
MARATHON 81 90 81 90 / 10 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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