835
FXUS62 KKEY 290232
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
- THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT,
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S FOR MOST COMMUNITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE QUITE AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION
ALONG WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER, THERE IS ANOTHER SUBTLY FEATURE UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE KEYS AND CUBA CURRENTLY. IN ORDER TO SEE THIS
FEATURE, WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE GOES 19 MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE LOOPING THE LAST FEW HOURS, WE NOTICE A WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE IMAGERY OR A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE FACTORS ATTRIBUTED TO THE
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE KEYS
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAINLAND. KBYX RADAR HAS
REMAINED SLIGHTLY ACTIVE THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE SHOWERS,
OCCASIONALLY A THUNDERSTORM, ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AND
THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. AT THE
SURFACE, AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS AND
INTO THE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS
ARE OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY VERTICAL PROFILE. THE
PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 2.01 INCHES WHICH IS A LITTLE BELOW THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
(CAPE) IN THE PROFILE WITH A VALUE MEASURED OF 3251 J/KG. THIS IS
A VERY HIGH VALUE AND MOST LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS WHY MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TODAY BECAME THUNDERSTORMS. THE CELLS WERE FEEDING
OFF THE INSTABILITY AND DIDN'T NEED MUCH TO MAKE THEM BECOME A
THUNDERSTORM. WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT SINCE
WE ARE LACKING SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS TO REALLY GET STORM
ACTIVITY GOING. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING A THUNDERSTORM QUITE EASILY DUE TO THE
IMPECCABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A RESULT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES THAT MAY
FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE AT TIMES, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STARTING LATE MONDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE HIGH AND ALLOW FOR SLACKENING BREEZES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, BREEZES WILL RESUME A CYCLE OF
OVERNIGHT PEAKS AND DAYTIME LULLS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE, THERE IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW NEARBY SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WAS DECENT CONSENSUS ACROSS THE GUIDANCE LEADING TO AT LEAST
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, THEREFORE, VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF
BEGINNING 29/12Z MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON
CLOUD LINE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 84 92 83 / 50 20 20 20
MARATHON 89 83 90 84 / 50 20 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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