333
FXUS62 KKEY 291439
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1039 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY.
- CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL CLOUD LINE TO
DEVELOPMENT OVER OR ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO CARRY A RISK FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY TAME ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DRIER AIR IS
WORKING ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OUR RAIN CHANCES AT BAY FOR TODAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND AND
THIS DRIER AIR HAS LOWERED OUR CHANCES FOR A CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS
MAINLY THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO BRIEFLY FORM. HOWEVER, WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT, IT WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN FOR LONG.
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOWERED POPS
TO 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN. OTHERWISE, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ONE MORE DAY OF LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONFINED ITSELF MOSTLY TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. ACROSS THESE WATERS, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE STRONGER SHOWERS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER, IT WOULD BE VERY SHORT
LIVED. NONETHELESS, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL
CARRY A RISK FOR GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF BLINDING DOWNPOURS,
AND BRIEF BOUTS OF LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN QUICKLY SLACKEN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FOR BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WILL TAKE OUT MENTIONS
OF VCSH AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX HAS REMAINED
SHOWER-FREE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
ARE POPPING UP ALONG SOME BOUNDARIES IN OUR WATERS OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SHORT FUSED AND SO
FAR NONE HAVE MADE IT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. SEEN ON MIMIC PWAT,
DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING LIMIT THESE
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ONCE AGAIN MAKING FOR MUGGY
CONDITIONS. ALONG THE REEF, WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE EASTERLY AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOTHING THAT WILL LAST LONG DUE TO
DRY AIR IN THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN
FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED FOR US TO CHANGE.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING
OUR WINDS, THEY WILL START TO SLACKEN. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE FOLLOWING DAYS SO MUGGY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON 89 83 89 83 / 10 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW/AP
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