445
FXUS62 KKEY 291945
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- BREEZES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN SLACKENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL CLOUD LINE TO
DEVELOPMENT OVER OR ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO CARRY A RISK FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STARTING TONIGHT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY BLEED SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA SOMETIME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO BREEZES SLACKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAY SUPPORT
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES AT TIMES. BY THURSDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALLOWING FOR
BREEZES TO PEAK OVERNIGHT AND LULL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY GENTLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, CONDITIONS
ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIAL CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP AFTER
16Z/30TH.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX HAS REMAINED
SHOWER-FREE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
ARE POPPING UP ALONG SOME BOUNDARIES IN OUR WATERS OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SHORT FUSED AND SO
FAR NONE HAVE MADE IT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. SEEN ON MIMIC PWAT,
DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING LIMIT THESE
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ONCE AGAIN MAKING FOR MUGGY
CONDITIONS. ALONG THE REEF, WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE EASTERLY AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOTHING THAT WILL LAST LONG DUE TO
DRY AIR IN THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN
FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED FOR US TO CHANGE.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING
OUR WINDS, THEY WILL START TO SLACKEN. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE FOLLOWING DAYS SO MUGGY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 10 20 30 20
MARATHON 83 89 83 89 / 10 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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