613
FXUS62 KKEY 301910
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT OVER, OR
ADJACENT TO, THE FLORIDA KEYS ON WEDNESDAY AGAIN. CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT WILL CARRY THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A CLOUD LINE BRIEFLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS
AND DRIFTED SOUTH ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL WATERS. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS CLOUD LINE THAT ARE
QUICKLY FIZZLING OUT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY TRY TO RE-FIRE
ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION,
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
MAINLAND WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SURGE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THESE OUTFLOWS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BRING
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, BLINDING DOWNPOURS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINES TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF ANY CONVECTION. AN EARLIER
CLOUDLINE THAT WAS MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE LOWER KEYS HAS
DIMINISHED BUT SHOWS SIGN OF POTENTIALLY COMING BACK TO LIFE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER, CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THEY WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY APPROACH THE KEYS. LEAVING FUTURE MENTIONS OF
VCSH/TS TO AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS KEPT
OUR KBYX RADAR BUSY DURING THIS OVERNIGHT SHIFT! A FEW HOURS AGO,
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS, AND EXTENDED TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST PAST DRY TORTUGAS
NATIONAL PARK. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRED FAR AWAY FROM ANY
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS, THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT POCKETS OF
LIGHTING SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WERE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE OF THINGS. AS WE ARE TYPING OUT THIS DISCUSSION, MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY WANED. HOWEVER, THERE ARE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
JUST EAST OF MARATHON, AND WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF KEY LARGO.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT A SLOWLY-MOBING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAGGING
DOWN THE PENINSULA IS INDICATIVE OF AN AREA OF "WEAKNESS" IN THIS
RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF DOESN'T MEAN MUCH FOR US HERE,
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PENINSULA TODAY MAY PRODUCE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ENCROACH ON OUR WATERS, AND MAY TRIGGER
NEW ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THE NEBULOUS FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IF A CLOUDLINE DOES DEVELOP EITHER OVER, OR ADJACENT
TO, THE ISLAND CHAIN, THESE COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MODERATE
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS. CONSIDERING THESE
VARIABLES AT PLAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HEFTY RIDGING WILL ALSO ENCOURAGE TOASTY AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S OVERNIGHT. AS LONG AS SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT
FROM ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS, THE LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL HELP TO
RADIATE OUR USUAL SUSPECTS (WE'RE LOOKING AT YOU, BIG PINE). EVEN
THOUGH MOST OF OUR AUTOMATED OBSERVATION SITES REMAINED WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY READING IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S, BIG PINE KEY WAS ABLE TO HIT 77F JUST BEFORE 6 AM COURTESY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WITH THE RIDGING ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
GENERAL DAY TO DAY PATTERN SHOULD NOT SEE ANY MEANINGFUL CHANGES.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME MOISTURE INFLUXES WILL COME
THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OVERALL, A VERY NORMAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN IS IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON 90 82 89 83 / 20 20 20 20
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 30 30 30 20
MARATHON 82 89 83 89 / 30 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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