882
FXUS62 KKEY 010238
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT WILL CARRY THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND TRIGGERED SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE
ACTION PUSHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WHERE
A FEW NEARBY MARINE- BASED STATIONS RECORDED PEAK WIND GUSTS NEAR
30 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 00Z EVENING
SOUNDING SAMPLED AT KEY, WHICH HIGHLIGHTED DRY AIR IN THE 850-500
MB ISOBARIC LAYER, SUPPORTIVE OF DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG.
CONVECTION HAS SINCE WANED ACROSS THE CWA, WITH KBYX AND KAMX
LOCAL DOPPLER RADARS ONLY DETECTING A FEW REMNANT ISOLATED
SHOWERS. WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL ASCENT, AND MANY
LOCATIONS WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ELIMINATED, LOCAL
METEOROLOGICAL REASONING SUGGESTS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
ADJACENT MARINE ZONES SHOULD SEE LIMITED ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP LITTLE OVERNIGHT, REMAINING IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S AT MOST COMMUNITIES. OUTSIDE OF REMOVING MENTION OF
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MARINE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, NO
CHANGES PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY WITH BRIEF NOCTURNAL
SURGES OFF THE MAINLAND IN THE EVENING AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CLOUD LINE TO
DEVELOP OVER, OR ACROSS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH PEAKS
AND LULLS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEARBY
THE ISLAND CHAIN WHICH WILL INSTIGATE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DUE TO AROUND AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, VCSH WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BLINDING
DOWNPOURS REDUCING CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND POTENTIAL LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON 90 82 89 83 / 20 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT/RG
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