560
FXUS62 KKEY 011431
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT
WILL CARRY THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
A FAIRLY BENIGN START TO THE DAY, HOWEVER, THERE IS AN
INTERESTING FEATURE THAT HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. WINDS OVERNIGHT CAME OFF THE MAINLAND,
RESULTING IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE
WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CAME BACK IN FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE RESULTED IN MASS AND MOMEMTUM
CONVERGING ACROSS THE GULF AND WE NOW HAVE A WEAK, BROAD MESOVORT.
THIS SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OVER THE LAST
HOUR CONVECTION IS BUBBLING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MESOVORT.
WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO POP OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SE GULF WATERS, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT'S EFFECT LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE FOR A
CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP AND THIS MESOVORT COULD HELP LEND SOME
ORGANIZATION IF IT SHOULD DEVELOP. THE WIND PROFILE FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH AN ABOUT 700 MB WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO TO FORM WITHIN ANY
CLOUD LINE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL FULLY
INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER, OPTED TO LEAVE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES AT
SLIGHT FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES HAVE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND
AND EJECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS, WE COULD SEE A QUICK UPTICK IN NORTHEAST BREEZES.
OTHERWISE, AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM
THE HIGH SHOULD INDUCE AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD, ALLOWING FOR A VERY SLOW FRESHENING TO OCCUR.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LINE AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY. MENTIONS OF VCSH/TS WILL BE ADDED AS CONDITIONS PRESENT
THEMSELVES. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
UNREMARKABLE OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ONLY A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE DETECTED BY THE GOES-19 SATELLITE, ESPECIALLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, TEMPERATURES HAVE SAT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
EXCEPTION, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING, IS ON BIG PINE KEY WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., CENTERED SOMEWHERE
AROUND WESTERN VIRGINIA, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SENSIBLE WEATHER
MOSTLY BENIGN. FORECASTING WHEN, AND WHERE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP FEELS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, BECAUSE WE HAVE
TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS WE ARE DEPENDING ON THE TRIGGER ACTIVITY.
THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD OPENS THE DOOR FOR POSSIBLE
CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT EITHER OVER, OR ADJACENT TO, PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS A
POSSIBILITY FOR WATERSPOUTS. THE SECOND TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY COMES
FROM THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAINLAND THAT STEM FROM
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY CAN EITHER DRIFT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA, OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN COLLIDE AND TRIGGER NEW
ACTIVITY, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS
IS TO SAY THAT THE INGREDIENTS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THERE AS IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR JULY IN FLORIDA. THE QUESTION
IS SIMPLY WHERE AND WHEN DOES THIS ACTIVITY POP UP.
AFTER TODAY, THE RIDGING WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. WHILE THIS HAPPENS, A PULSE OR TWO OF VORTICITY WILL
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND CLIP THE AREA, WHICH WILL NURTURE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ISN'T A PATTERN EVOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR A WIDESPREAD
WASHOUT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD TRANSLATE TO AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY OF OUR CWA. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
FAVORS ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY, AND IF WE CAN
WORK OVER THE ENVIRONMENT, THAT MAY GIVE US A WINDOW OF DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE CELEBRATING OUTDOORS. HOWEVER, THAT
HYPERLOCAL SCALE IS UNREALISTIC TO TRY AND FORECAST FOR THREE DAYS
OUT, SO THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 20 30 20 10
MARATHON 89 82 89 83 / 20 20 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW/DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW/DP
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