647
FXUS62 KKEY 011901
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
301 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMATION NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY. CLOUD
LINE DEVELOPMENT WILL CARRY THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE FIZZLED
OUT. RESIDUAL CLOUD LINE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS WITH ON
OCCASION DEVELOP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DRIFT OUT OVER THE SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE,
WATCHING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND, WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR WATERS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, EXPECT LIGHT, VARIABLE BREEZES TO
GENERALLY FRESHEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF OVERNIGHT PEAKS FOLLOWED BY LULLS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STARTING LATE THURSDAY, A
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BUILD, ALLOWING FOR
BREEZES TO FRESHEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CLOUD LINE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATCHING FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THAT MAY PASS CLOSE TO EITHER MTH OR EYW
TERMINALS. GENERAL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START AND
GRADUALLY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
UNREMARKABLE OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ONLY A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE DETECTED BY THE GOES-19 SATELLITE, ESPECIALLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, TEMPERATURES HAVE SAT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
EXCEPTION, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING, IS ON BIG PINE KEY WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., CENTERED SOMEWHERE
AROUND WESTERN VIRGINIA, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SENSIBLE WEATHER
MOSTLY BENIGN. FORECASTING WHEN, AND WHERE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP FEELS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, BECAUSE WE HAVE
TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS WE ARE DEPENDING ON THE TRIGGER ACTIVITY.
THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD OPENS THE DOOR FOR POSSIBLE
CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT EITHER OVER, OR ADJACENT TO, PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS A
POSSIBILITY FOR WATERSPOUTS. THE SECOND TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY COMES
FROM THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAINLAND THAT STEM FROM
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY CAN EITHER DRIFT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA, OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN COLLIDE AND TRIGGER NEW
ACTIVITY, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS
IS TO SAY THAT THE INGREDIENTS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THERE AS IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR JULY IN FLORIDA. THE QUESTION
IS SIMPLY WHERE AND WHEN DOES THIS ACTIVITY POP UP.
AFTER TODAY, THE RIDGING WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. WHILE THIS HAPPENS, A PULSE OR TWO OF VORTICITY WILL
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND CLIP THE AREA, WHICH WILL NURTURE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ISN'T A PATTERN EVOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR A WIDESPREAD
WASHOUT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD TRANSLATE TO AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY OF OUR CWA. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
FAVORS ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY, AND IF WE CAN
WORK OVER THE ENVIRONMENT, THAT MAY GIVE US A WINDOW OF DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE CELEBRATING OUTDOORS. HOWEVER, THAT
HYPERLOCAL SCALE IS UNREALISTIC TO TRY AND FORECAST FOR THREE DAYS
OUT, SO THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 30 10 20 10
MARATHON 82 89 83 90 / 30 20 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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