858
FXUS62 KKEY 020256
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1056 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMATION NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY. CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
NEARLY A METEOROLOGICAL CARBON COPY FROM LAST NIGHT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A DECENT CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMED EARLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
SPUTTERED FOR A BIT, THEN REINVIGORATED BETWEEN KEY WEST AND BIG
COPPITT. THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN KEY WEST ON WHITE STREET MEASURED
1.38" OF RAINFALL IN A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
PRESSED SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND, BUT LARGELY
DISSIPATED BEFORE IT MADE IT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL, TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE DRY COMMUNITIES.
DESPITE THE RAINFALL AT THE OFFICE, THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT
KEY SAMPLED LITTLE INHIBITION, WITH PLENTY OF MIXED-LAYER AND
SURFACE-BASE CAPE REMAINING TO UTILIZE. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE
LIKELY SEVERAL RESIDUAL QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARIES LURKING ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE KEYS. WITH THE NEBULOUS, CHAOTIC FLOW
ALSO SAMPLED IN THE SOUNDING, ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS
WILL BE LIKELY LIMITED TO BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OF THE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES. ELECTED TO NUDGE POPS TO SLIGHT LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MARINE ZONES NORTH OF THE KEYS, FAVORED
WITH MORE PESKY BOUNDARIES. OUTSIDE OF THE NUDGE DOWNWARD IN
POPS, NO CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED
TO POSSIBLE AFTERNOON NEARSHORE CLOUDLINES INTERACTING WITH ANY
BOUNDARIES PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES RESUMING
ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH
02/24Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN
THE VICINITY OF EYW AND MTH CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SUPPORTED BY POSSIBLE ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMATION, THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS FROM ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING FROM THE MAINLAND. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND
BRIEF IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 20 20 10 20
MARATHON 89 82 89 83 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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