313
FXUS62 KKEY 021029
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
629 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMATION NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN BUSY DURING THIS OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPENT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. INITIALLY, GHOST BOUNDARIES WERE
ABLE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE SEEN THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
INCREASE. AS WE ARE TYPING OUT THIS DISCUSSION, THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED EAST FROM THE UPPER KEYS, OVER THE
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE. AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE MORNING, A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXCEPTED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WERE ON THE WARM SIDE AS THEY ONLY DIPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE EXCEPTION WAS BIG PINE KEY WHICH WAS ABLE TO
COOL OFF TO 76F!
THIS PATTERN OF TOASTY AND MUGGY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS LIGHT
FLOW MEANS THAT CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EITHER OVER, OR ADJACENT TO, THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF THE AREA BECOMES OUTFLOW DOMINANT FROM
THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
INTERFERE WITH THE UNIFORM FLOW NEEDED TO SUPPORT OUR CLOUDLINE.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LITTLE BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SPECIFICALLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, WHERE WE HAVE SEEMED TO BE
LACKING. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACTIVITY TO WANE JUST IN TIME FOR ANY NIGHTTIME
CELEBRATIONS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE SEASONABLE RAINFALL CHANCES WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING OUT HEAT
INDICES MAY SEE AN UPTICK AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL CALLS ABOUT THAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED
TO POSSIBLE AFTERNOON NEARSHORE CLOUDLINES INTERACTING WITH ANY
BOUNDARIES PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES RESUMING
ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.
CROSS WIND CONCERNS ARE LOW DUE TO THE LOW MAGNITUDE OF THESE
WINDS. A LOW CHANCE, NEAR 20 PERCENT, OF RAIN EXISTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR, OR OVER, EITHER TERMINAL WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP VCSH FOR EYW UNTIL 12Z DUE TO NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS.
OF NOTE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY
ON THIS DAY IN 1878, A TROPICAL STORM PASSED ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF KEY WEST, WHERE A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 29.77" WAS
RECORDED ALONG WITH A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 83 91 83 / 20 20 10 30
MARATHON 89 83 90 83 / 20 20 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV/RG
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