242
FXUS62 KKEY 021445
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMATION NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
AFTER A FLURRY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE
IS SLOWLY SIMMERING DOWN. WE STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AT TIMES THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN, INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE DRY
TORTUGAS. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND REMAIN
CLEAR OF THE KEYS. THAT BEING SAID, WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
YET. A LIGHT WIND REGIME AT THE SURFACE, COUPLE WITH A LINGERING
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB MEAN LAYER WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR CLOUD LINES TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ALREADY ON THEIR WAY TO BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH THE COASTAL WATERS QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUIT.
THERE WAS NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WATCH OUT
FOR CONVECTION AND WINDS TO POSSIBLY SURGE OFF THE MAINLAND
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS WILL RETURN
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL
CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CLOUD LINES WILL CARRY A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT RE-FIRES LATER TODAY WILL CARRY A
RISK OF GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, BLINDING DOWNPOURS, AND BOUTS OF
LIGHTNING.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOUD LINE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTH TERMINAL.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN BUSY DURING THIS OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPENT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. INITIALLY, GHOST BOUNDARIES WERE
ABLE TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS WITH JUST ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE SEEN THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
INCREASE. AS WE ARE TYPING OUT THIS DISCUSSION, THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED EAST FROM THE UPPER KEYS, OVER THE
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE. AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE MORNING, A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXCEPTED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WERE ON THE WARM SIDE AS THEY ONLY DIPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE EXCEPTION WAS BIG PINE KEY WHICH WAS ABLE TO
COOL OFF TO 76F!
THIS PATTERN OF TOASTY AND MUGGY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS LIGHT
FLOW MEANS THAT CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EITHER OVER, OR ADJACENT TO, THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF THE AREA BECOMES OUTFLOW DOMINANT FROM
THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
INTERFERE WITH THE UNIFORM FLOW NEEDED TO SUPPORT OUR CLOUDLINE.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LITTLE BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SPECIFICALLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, WHERE WE HAVE SEEMED TO BE
LACKING. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACTIVITY TO WANE JUST IN TIME FOR ANY NIGHTTIME
CELEBRATIONS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE SEASONABLE RAINFALL CHANCES WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING OUT HEAT
INDICES MAY SEE AN UPTICK AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL CALLS ABOUT THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 83 91 83 / 20 20 10 30
MARATHON 89 83 90 83 / 20 20 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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