950
FXUS62 KKEY 021855
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT, OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE, EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE TONIGHT.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMATION NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TOMORROW. CLOUD
LINE DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS HAVE COLLAPSED. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. POTENTIAL CLOUD LINES
ALONG THE BAYSIDE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE STILL A
CONCERN. LATER TONIGHT, THE RISK WILL SHIFT TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF MAINLAND CONVECTION HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SET OFF MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA BAY, EASTERN
HAWK CHANNEL, OR THE OUTER GULF WATERS. EXPECT LIGHT, OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE BREEZES OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNSET, AND BREEZES
ARE ON TRACK TO FRESH TO LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. CLOUD LINES MAY BE ABLE TO FORM NEAR EYW OR MTH THIS
EVENING, AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS OR VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. GENERAL WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH PERIODS OF VARIABLE CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
THIS PATTERN OF TOASTY AND MUGGY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS LIGHT
FLOW MEANS THAT CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EITHER OVER, OR ADJACENT TO, THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF THE AREA BECOMES OUTFLOW DOMINANT FROM
THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
INTERFERE WITH THE UNIFORM FLOW NEEDED TO SUPPORT OUR CLOUDLINE.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LITTLE BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SPECIFICALLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, WHERE WE HAVE SEEMED TO BE
LACKING. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACTIVITY TO WANE JUST IN TIME FOR ANY NIGHTTIME
CELEBRATIONS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE SEASONABLE RAINFALL CHANCES WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING OUT HEAT
INDICES MAY SEE AN UPTICK AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL CALLS ABOUT THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 91 83 92 / 20 10 30 20
MARATHON 83 90 83 89 / 20 20 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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