375
FXUS62 KKEY 030940
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
540 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY
BEFORE RESUMING AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD
LINE WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THIS FORECASTER FEELS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN WRITING ALMOST
IDENTICAL FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR THE PAST FEW SHIFTS, BUT HERE
WE ARE AGAIN TO DISCUSS THE TOASTY AND MUGGY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED
BY INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
KEPT BUSY WHILE DETECTING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE LOWER KEYS, INCLUDING THE SE GULF
WATERS. ALMOST NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY PASSED OVER OUR FEW MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS, BUT WE DID SEE A WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS,
OR 23 MPH, WITH ONE SHOWER NEAR BIG PINE KEY. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF THE COLLISION OF MULTIPLE LINGERING
BOUNDARIES NEAR THE LOWER KEYS, INCLUDING THE LONG-LIVED CLOUD
LINE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ONLY "COOLED" DOWN TO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S, BUT THE AUTOMATED OBSERVATION ON BIG PINE KEY SHOWED
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 78F AS OF
4:30 AM. IN FACT, THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
BEEN ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE DAYTIME HIGH AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOW, EXCEPT FOR BIG PINE WHERE THE SPREAD HAS BEEN
CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES.
TODAY WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT'S A LOVE STORY
BETWEEN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTERNOON BREEZES AND CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT. SINCE THE LOWER KEYS HAVE SEEN A CLOUD LINE EVERY
AFTERNOON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE ISN'T ANY REASON TO RULE
OUT THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE ONE MORE THIS AFTERNOON.
OF NOTE, WE KNOW ALL TOO WELL THAT MOST OF THE INTEREST IN THE
FORECAST IS BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW NIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT SHOWS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED MOISTURE NEAR ANDROS,
AND THIS HAS BEEN COINCIDING WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR EAST. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS IT POINTS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS IN
THE EVENING.
AFTER FESTIVITIES WIND DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE
IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS AN AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL), OR
SAHARAN DUST, ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA. IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT,
BUT THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES RAMP UP BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT WE WOULD NEED A SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. FOR NOW, WE'LL GET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE KEEPING OUT EYES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY,
AND WILL LULL DURING THE DAY AND PEAK OVERNIGHT. ANY ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON NEARSHORE CLOUDLINES INTERACTING WITH ANY BOUNDARIES
PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES RESUMING ACROSS THE KEYS
MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OCCASIONALLY BECOMING
VARIABLE AT TIMES. OPTING TO KEEP A BROAD VCSH BETWEEN 18Z AND
02Z DUE TO ANTICIPATED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA, BUT TIMING
WILL BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE PACKAGES ONCE SHOWERS ACTUALLY
INITIATE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 83 90 83 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON 90 83 89 83 / 20 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR/RG
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