669
FXUS62 KKEY 031418
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
DEVELOPING CLOUD LINE WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MORNING HOURS
WERE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY'S BURST OF ACTIVITY, BUT THAT DOES
NOT MEAN THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE-LADEN
AIR ACROSS THE KEYS, SO DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE.
PLUS, LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MORNING 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED A
DRIER LAYER BELOW 800 MB, SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AIRMASS
WITH AN ESTIMATED PWAT OVER 2 INCHES MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WHILE THE DRY AIR MAY KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY FOR A MOMENT, ANOTHER
CLOUD LINE DAY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE KEYS. EVEN WITH A FEW DRIER
LAYERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS, THE SAMPLED ENVIRONMENTAL
PWAT WAS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. THUS, THERE IS NO
NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026 NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS. BREEZES WILL LULL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND PEAK OVERNIGHT. ANY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
MARINE ZONES WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE CLOUDLINES INTERACTING WITH ANY BOUNDARIES PUSHING OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES RESUMING ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE
ZONES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH AMIDST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT
TIMES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE NEARBY WATERS
BEFORE AFTERNOON. CLOUD LINE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEREFORE VCSH IS INTRODUCED AFTER LOCAL NOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
OF NOTE, WE KNOW ALL TOO WELL THAT MOST OF THE INTEREST IN THE
FORECAST IS BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW NIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT SHOWS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED MOISTURE NEAR ANDROS,
AND THIS HAS BEEN COINCIDING WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR EAST. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS IT POINTS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS IN
THE EVENING.
AFTER FESTIVITIES WIND DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE
IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS AN AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL), OR
SAHARAN DUST, ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA. IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT,
BUT THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES RAMP UP BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT WE WOULD NEED A SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. FOR NOW, WE'LL GET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE KEEPING OUT EYES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 83 90 83 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON 90 83 89 83 / 20 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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