416
FXUS62 KKEY 031908
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RESUME AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY
DEVELOPING CLOUD LINE WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SHOWER COVERAGE WAS RELATIVELY SPARSE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS THIS MORNING. PATCHY CLOUD LINE ACTIVITY BEGAN TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON NEAR THE LOWER KEYS NORTHWEST OF BIG PINE KEY. BREEZES
HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLIES, WHICH MAY EXPLAIN WHY
CLOUD LINE CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO FORM. TONIGHT'S CONCERNS
FOR CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO STEM FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
MOVE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THUS, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES RESUMING
ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A PATCHY CLOUD LINE WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP BETWEEN EYW AND MTH DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS MAY LIMIT CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE WINDS
SLACKEN AND SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO PULSE NEAR ONE OF THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
OF NOTE, WE KNOW ALL TOO WELL THAT MOST OF THE INTEREST IN THE
FORECAST IS BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW NIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT SHOWS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED MOISTURE NEAR ANDROS,
AND THIS HAS BEEN COINCIDING WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WELL TO
OUR EAST. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS IT POINTS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS IN
THE EVENING.
AFTER FESTIVITIES WIND DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE
IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS AN AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL), OR
SAHARAN DUST, ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA. IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT,
BUT THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES RAMP UP BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT WE WOULD NEED A SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. FOR NOW, WE'LL GET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE KEEPING OUT EYES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 90 83 90 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON 83 89 83 89 / 30 30 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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