345
FXUS62 KKEY 040302
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS HAVE CLOCKED AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
- A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A CLOUD LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WAXED AND WANED AND WAS ABLE TO
PRODUCE A FAIRLY HEALTHY LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOWER KEYS. A GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FELL FROM BIG TORCH KEY DOWN TO KEY WEST. RADAR ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 FELL ACROSS
KEY WEST. AFTER THAT LINE CAME THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLED
DOWN UNTIL JUST AROUND SUNSET. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES PLUS OUTFLOWS
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA IGNITED A NEW
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT REMAINS ONGOING THIS HOUR. SADLY THIS NEW
ROUND HAS MOSTLY STAYED OFFSHORE AND MERELY TEASED THE KEYS.
MEANWHILE, LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE RETURNED
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES, A
POCKET OF RELATIVELY BETTER MOISTURE WILL PIVOT THROUGH LATE AND
CLOSER TO DAWN. CAMS ARE SUGGESTING WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT AFTER 3 TO 5 AM AND LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE EVENING FIREWORK BEGINS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL LULL ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE
MAINLAND LEADS TO A WEAKER PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERNIGHT PEAKS AND DAYTIME
LULLS IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER, AS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY
BUILDS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS, EXPECT
BREEZES TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL FRESHENING TREND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ON OCCASION
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY EYW. ANY
PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING A THREAT FOR MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG/DDR
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