595
FXUS62 KKEY 041426
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH THE USUAL HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. BREEZES ACROSS THE REEF ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLIES. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLOUD
COVER IS A BIT SPARSE ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS, WHILE KBYX RADAR
RETURNS SHOW POPCORN CUMULUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEYS. THE MORNING
KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
KEYS WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE IS MIRRORED AT THE SURFACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. OVERALL, EXPECTING NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PULSE UP AND DOWN IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING THE DIURNAL WIND COLLAPSE WITH SHOWERS FLARING ON
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL MEANDER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS ARE ON TRACK TO REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN OVER THE KEYS WATERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD LINE CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN
THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SLOPPY SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE WESTERN FLANK OF ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SEASONABLE REGIME WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, AND RESULT
IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL LINGER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
NEBULOUS FLOW ALOFT AND DOMINANT RIDGING THROUGH THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 20 20 20 10
MARATHON 89 83 89 83 / 30 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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