202
FXUS62 KKEY 041844
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
244 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH THE USUAL HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HAZARD OF CONCERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED MOSTLY OVER THE OUTER GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
MANAGED TO FORM OVER NEAR THE TOWERS AND SENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
BACK TOWARDS THE KEYS. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY AS BREEZES ACROSS THE REEF REMAIN LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLIES. HOWEVER, BREEZES ARE ON TRACK TO BEFORE
SUNSET. CLOUD LINES ARE BEGINNING TO FORM NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER
KEYS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER KEYS AND INTERACT WITH THE
EXISTING CLOUD LINES. IN THE UPPER KEYS, THE CONCERN OF INTEREST
WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SINKING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
CONVECTION.
FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN A SLIGHT AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT BREEZES TO SHIFT BETWEEN EASTERLY
AND SOUTHERLY WHILE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS
ARE PERCOLATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, AND FURTHER
CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SHIFT A
BIT MORE EASTERLY. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE KEYS
AIRSPACE, SO VCSH IS ABSENT FROM THE TAFS AFTER SUNSET. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SLOPPY SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE WESTERN FLANK OF ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SEASONABLE REGIME WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, AND RESULT
IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL LINGER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
NEBULOUS FLOW ALOFT AND DOMINANT RIDGING THROUGH THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 20 20 10 20
MARATHON 83 89 83 90 / 30 30 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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