774
FXUS62 KKEY 050228
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE
LEVELS (20-30%), WITH THE USUAL HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HAZARD OF CONCERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ON THIS 4TH OF JULY. INITIALLY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE LOWER KEYS AND PORTIONS OF
THE SE GULF WATERS EARLIER. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY WANED, NEW
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
WHICH HAS SINCE FIZZLED OUT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUTSIDE THE SE GULF WATERS WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS, NEAR KEY LARGO. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE KEYS WITH THE STRONGER RIDGING REMAINING FARTHER OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH
A CAPE VALUE MEASURED OF 2341 J/KG. WE ALSO HAVE A FAIR BIT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A PWAT VALUE MEASURED OF 2.09
INCHES. THIS IS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND
PROFILE DISPLAYS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF MAINLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SINCE WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION, EXPECT ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, NO
CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN A
SLIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT BREEZES TO SHIFT BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WHILE THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY REMAINING UNCERTAIN,
THEREFORE, VCSH WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE TIME FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 20 20 20 10
MARATHON 89 83 89 83 / 30 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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