457
FXUS62 KKEY 050757
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT
SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%), WITH THE USUAL WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE NOW STRETCHES WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEBULOUS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE
FORCING IS WEAK AND LARGELY MESOSCALE IN NATURE. CURRENTLY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AT A MINIMUM WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR DEEP GULF ZONES. WARM CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE A RESULT OF
MESOSCALE AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS MAY DIP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR A SHORT PERIOD
EARLY IN THE WEEK. HEAD INDEX VALUES MAY PUSH TOWARDS 110 BY MID
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE, PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND BROADLY SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 20 20 20 10
MARATHON 89 83 89 83 / 30 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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