524
FXUS62 KKEY 051425
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT
SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%), WITH THE USUAL WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE FIRST SUNDAY OF JULY OPENED A BIT QUIETER THAN EXPECTED. THE
AXIS OF THE BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE LIFTED FURTHER NORTH, AND
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE REEF IN
RESPONSE. KBYX RADAR RETURNS STILL HIGHLIGHT PERCOLATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, CLOSER TO MARCO
ISLAND. THAT IS NOT TO SUGGEST SHOWERS ARE NOT POSSIBLE. THE
MORNING 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT OVER 1.9
INCHES. GOES- DERIVED PWATS OVER THE UPPER KEYS ARE SAMPLING OVER
2 INCHES. MINIMAL INHIBITION WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ONE CAN FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL IN THE AIR WHEN STEPPING OUTSIDE INTO THE MID 70S DEW
POINTS. THE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM. SHOWERS LAST
NIGHT FORMED ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, AND THOSE BOUNDARIES HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS. IF SOUTHERLIES PERSIST, WE COULD SEE A CUBAN SHADOW LIMIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, IF THE RIDGE MEANDERS BACK TO THE SOUTH,
BREEZES COLLAPSE AND THE ENVIRONMENT RETURNS TO MESOSCALE DRIVEN
CLOUD LINE CONVECTION. FOR THE UPPER KEYS, THE ISSUE WILL BE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. NO
CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
OSCILLATE BETWEEN A SLIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZES TO SHIFT BETWEEN EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY WHILE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH MEANDERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY BROADLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND BELOW 10 KNOTS.
CLOUD LINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, BUT A WEAK CUBAN SHADOW MAY LIMIT
SHOWER AND CLOUD COVER NEAR EYW AND MTH. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE NOW STRETCHES WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEBULOUS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE
FORCING IS WEAK AND LARGELY MESOSCALE IN NATURE. CURRENTLY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AT A MINIMUM WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR DEEP GULF ZONES. WARM CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE A RESULT OF
MESOSCALE AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS MAY DIP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR A SHORT PERIOD
EARLY IN THE WEEK. HEAD INDEX VALUES MAY PUSH TOWARDS 110 BY MID
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 84 / 20 10 30 10
MARATHON 89 83 90 84 / 30 20 30 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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