126
FXUS62 KKEY 051853
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT
SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%), WITH THE USUAL WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS
DISSIPATED BY AFTERNOON. BREEZES ALONG THE REEF SLACKENED FROM
LIGHT TO GENTLE TO LIGHT BY NOON, WHICH ALLOWED CLOUD LINES TO
START PERCOLATING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE VISIBLE ON KBYX RADAR OVER THE OUTER GULF, SO
BOUNDARY COLLISION SHOWERS HAVE A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULFSIDE WATERS. SHOWERS MOVING OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BRING
RAINFALL TO FLORIDA BAY AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER KEYS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, BREEZES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WOBBLES
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WAX AND WANE BETWEEN
SLIGHT AND A CHANCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A
WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS SLACKENED AT BOTH TERMINALS, WHICH
ALLOWED CLOUD LINES TO START FORMING OVER THE LOWER KEYS. SHORT
LIVED SHOWERS GENERATING MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
BOTH TERMINALS, BUT MORE LIKELY NEAR MTH. CLOUD COVER AWAY FROM
THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL BE SPARSE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE NOW STRETCHES WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEBULOUS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE
FORCING IS WEAK AND LARGELY MESOSCALE IN NATURE. CURRENTLY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AT A MINIMUM WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR DEEP GULF ZONES. WARM CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE A RESULT OF
MESOSCALE AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS MAY DIP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR A SHORT PERIOD
EARLY IN THE WEEK. HEAD INDEX VALUES MAY PUSH TOWARDS 110 BY MID
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 84 93 / 10 30 10 20
MARATHON 83 90 84 90 / 20 30 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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