757
FXUS62 KKEY 060227
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
SLACKEN MONDAY MORNING.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS
(10-20%), WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS EARLY THIS WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MULTIPLE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE NEEDED
FOR SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS
AND ACROSS THE SE GULF. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY WAXING AND WANING
WITH EARLIER STORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INITIATING NEW STORMS AS
MANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ACROSS THE KEYS, THIS HAS
BEEN CAPABLE OF KEEPING THE RADAR QUITE BUSY. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE GULF WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. WEAK RIDGING REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGER PART OF THE RIDGE STILL REMAINING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING MAINLY SOUTHEAST
BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN IS QUITE UNSTABLE TONIGHT,
THOUGH WE CAN PROBABLY ALMOST CLASSIFY IT AS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE.
THE CAPE VALUE MEASURED WAS AN ASTONISHING 3558 J/KG WHICH IS
INCREDIBLE INSTABILITY AND MOST LIKELY WHY WE ARE SEEING VIRTUALLY
EVERY SHOWER TONIGHT BECOMING A THUNDERSTORM. THE CELLS ARE JUST
FEEDING OFF THE INSTABILITY. MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH
A PWAT VALUE MEASURED OF 2.02 INCHES WHICH IS A LITTLE BELOW THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WINDS BACKING TO EASTERLY WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OVERALL, WE HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS (MOISTURE, INSTABILITY,
AND TRIGGER) ON THE TABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BETWEEN
EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY DURING THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ATLANTIC HIGH WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL WAX AND WANE BETWEEN SLIGHT AND A CHANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING EASTERLY MONDAY
EVENING. THERE REMAINS THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY, VCSH WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 84 / 20 10 30 10
MARATHON 89 83 90 84 / 30 20 30 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page