369
FXUS62 KKEY 060806
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
406 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN THIS MORNING.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS (10-20%), WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND MAY DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WEAK SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZES
LIGHT TO GENTLE AND BROADLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MESOSCALE
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TENDING TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STRUGGLING TO FALL OUT OF
THE MID 80S AND NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK PREDOMINANTLY MESOSCALE/DIURNAL FORCING BELOW WILL
RESULT IN SEASONABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH ISLAND DRIVEN CONVECTION USUALLY ENDING UP ON OUR
NEARSHORE GULF SIDE WATERS.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
WHILE IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT,
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARDS, WITH PEAKS IN THE
EVENING AND LULLS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS
NEAR 90 BUT ALSO HOLD UP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 80S. RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY AS A SWATH OF DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS THE KEYS FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS
CUBA. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SWATH OF
INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES MAY TICK
UP A NOTCH OR TWO TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME, NOT
ALL, STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THIS. EXPECT
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, KEEPING LOCAL BREEZES LIGHT TO GENTLE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN MODESTLY
WHILST LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBAN DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
THESE WIND SWINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRONOUNCED AND THE NEED FOR
PERIODIC MARINE CAUTIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 84 93 84 / 30 10 20 10
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 30 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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