277
FXUS62 KKEY 061422
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN AND BACK EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS (10-20%), WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND MAY DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
TYPICAL JULY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. KBYX RADAR RETURNS ARE
TRACKING SHORT LIVED POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE MORNING 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED A
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH OVER 2500 J/KG THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT WAS SAMPLED AT OVER 1.9 INCHES, SO MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT IN THE MORNING
HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN IS THE SOURCE OF LIFT. OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS, WEAK CONFLUENCE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAME CONFLUENCE IS ABSENT OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS OF THE KEYS. FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SINGLE CELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WAX AND WANE ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS. LATER IN THE DAY, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PRIMED FOR
CLOUD LINE CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. WINDS ARE
SET TO SLACKEN AND BACK A BIT MORE EASTERLY, PLUS THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER MEANS THE ISLANDS WILL HEAT UP UNINTERRUPTED. ONCE
AGAIN, WE WILL BE LEAVING THE SHOWER CHANCES ALONE. KEEP AN EYE ON
THE RADAR BECAUSE THE SHOWERS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO
FROM LIGHT RAIN TO THUNDERSTORMS VERY QUICKLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, KEEPING LOCAL BREEZES LIGHT TO GENTLE AND
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY WHILST LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CUBAN DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN FRESHENING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
MID WEEK AND BEYOND. THESE WIND SWINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PRONOUNCED AND THE NEED FOR PERIODIC MARINE CAUTIONS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK A BIT EASTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND CLOUD LINE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
TERMINALS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON, SO IT IS CURRENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WEAK SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZES
LIGHT TO GENTLE AND BROADLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MESOSCALE
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TENDING TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STRUGGLING TO FALL OUT OF
THE MID 80S AND NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK PREDOMINANTLY MESOSCALE/DIURNAL FORCING BELOW WILL
RESULT IN SEASONABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH ISLAND DRIVEN CONVECTION USUALLY ENDING UP ON OUR
NEARSHORE GULF SIDE WATERS.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
WHILE IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT,
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARDS, WITH PEAKS IN THE
EVENING AND LULLS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS
NEAR 90 BUT ALSO HOLD UP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 80S. RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY AS A SWATH OF DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS THE KEYS FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS
CUBA. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SWATH OF
INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES MAY TICK
UP A NOTCH OR TWO TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME, NOT
ALL, STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THIS. EXPECT
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 84 91 84 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 91 83 92 84 / 20 10 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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