126
FXUS62 KKEY 061813
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
213 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN AND BACK EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS (10-20%), WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND MAY DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
SOUTHERLY BREEZES DIVERTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. BY NOON, SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REFORM WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS, BUT OTHERWISE
SHOWER AND CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS. BREEZES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, AND A CHANCE REMAINS THAT CLOUD LINES COULD
FORM OFF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. TONIGHT, SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO FORM AS BREEZES FRESHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.
FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY AND TREND UPWARDS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL
TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING WHERE PERIODIC CAUTIONS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS. ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WAX AND WANE
BETWEEN SLIGHT AND A CHANCE, WITH A DAY OR TWO DRIER STRETCH
ARRIVING MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE ON TRACK TO SLOWLY BACK
SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE SUNSET, AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE IN WIND SPEED
TOWARDS NEAR 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. CLOUD LINE SHOWERS CAPABLE OF
MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WEAK SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZES
LIGHT TO GENTLE AND BROADLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MESOSCALE
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TENDING TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FLOW WILL ENSURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STRUGGLING TO FALL OUT OF THE
MID 80S AND NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK PREDOMINANTLY MESOSCALE/DIURNAL FORCING BELOW WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH ISLAND DRIVEN CONVECTION USUALLY ENDING UP ON OUR
NEARSHORE GULF SIDE WATERS.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
WHILE IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT,
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARDS, WITH PEAKS IN THE
EVENING AND LULLS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS
NEAR 90 BUT ALSO HOLD UP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 80S. RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY AS A SWATH OF DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS THE KEYS FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GIVE WAY TO A WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS
CUBA. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SWATH OF
INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES MAY TICK
UP A NOTCH OR TWO TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME, NOT
ALL, STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THIS. EXPECT
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 91 84 92 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 83 92 84 93 / 10 20 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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