783
FXUS62 KKEY 070230
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS (10-20%), WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND MAY DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
SUMMER IN THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS IN FULL SWING THIS EVENING WITH
KBYX RADAR REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE. IT IS A BOUNDARY PALOOZA OUT
THERE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AND DISSIPATING
PERIODICALLY AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS TO THE UPPER KEYS, FLORIDA
BAY, AND ACROSS THE SE GULF AND NEARSHORE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOWER KEYS. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS AS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ITS GRIP
ACROSS THE KEYS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WITH A CAPE VALUE MEASURED OF 3231 J/KG. WE
ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. THE PWAT VALUE WAS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY MEASURING 2.05 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE REPRESENTS
MAINLY NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE LOWEST
FEW THOUSAND FEET. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS IN PLAY
FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY,
AND TRIGGERS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) SHOULD KEEP RADAR SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS
UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BETWEEN
EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY AND TREND UPWARDS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE
EVENING WHERE PERIODIC CAUTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
KEYS WATERS. ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL WAX AND WANE BETWEEN SLIGHT AND A CHANCE, WITH A DAY
OR TWO DRIER STRETCH ARRIVING MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUMMER IS IN FULL
SWING ACROSS THE KEYS WITH THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY
OF ANY ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF OR OVER THE TERMINALS, VCSH AND
VCTS WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS
NECESSARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 84 91 84 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 91 83 92 84 / 20 10 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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