248
FXUS62 KKEY 070759
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS WATERSPOUT FORMATION TODAY, PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE LOWER KEYS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER CHANCES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FLOW IS MAINTAINING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS QUITE SPARSE THIS HOUR WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON OUR
DISTANT GULF AND STRAITS WATERS.
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING
TODAY AS IT STEADILY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL STEADILY FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
THIS CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION ALONG AN ISLAND CLOUD LINE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. EXPECT CONTINUED SEASONABLE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING AND LULL
DURING THE DAY. SPELLS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND BY WEDNESDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIP TO DIMES OR LESS, LASTING A DAY OR
TWO. EXPECT CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
INCREASED FLOW DOING AN EVEN BETTER JOB AT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO CUBA AND FLORIDA STRAITS. AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BRING WITH IT INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD JUMP UP,
BECOMING AT LEAST A MID TO HIGH CHANCE. THIS IS NOT YET FULLY
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUCH DRIER LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
HOT ON ITS HEELS AND THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DROP BACK TO DIMES OR LESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS IS SETTING UP AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
LIFTS NORTHWARD, FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
BUILD IN, PEAKING IN THE EVENING AND LULLING DURING THE DAY. AT
LEAST CAUTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT, AND PERIODICALLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS. OVERALL, CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND TREND FURTHER DOWNWARDS AFTER MID WEEK. HOWEVER,
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EASE
OFF A BIT, WINDS WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. HOWEVER, THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CLOUD LINE BUILD UP TO STICK CLOSER TO THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THESE CELLS WILL DELIVER ROUNDS
OF SUB VFR TO THE TERMINALS OR THEIR VICINITY, PARTICULARLY AT
KEY WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 84 91 84 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 91 83 92 84 / 20 10 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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