744
FXUS62 KKEY 071406
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS WATERSPOUT FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER CHANCES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE SUN ROSE ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING. GOES EAST DAY CLOUD PHASE ENHANCEMENTS OBSERVE OCCASIONAL
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. KBYX RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS, BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION IS SPARSE. CLEAR SKIES
ALSO MEANS THE ENVIRONMENT IS GOING TO HEAT UP RAPIDLY, AND HEAT
INDICES OVER 100 F ARE LIKELY. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WEATHER
TO STAY QUIET. BREEZES ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE
MORNING 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SHOWED SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLIES IN THE
LOWEST 3000 FEET. LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION WAS PRESENT AND THERE IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE
CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO FORM OVER CUBA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL START DRAWING
AIR TOWARDS THE ISLAND, WHICH WILL BACK WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS.
ONCE THE WINDS BACK A BIT MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, CLOUD
LINES WILL BE ABLE TO FORM. WE'RE EXPECTING THE ENVIRONMENT TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS IN THE AFTERNOON, SO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR CLOUD LINES DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOWER KEYS. CURRENTLY, WE
DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LIGHT TO GENTLE AND BACK TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL SET UP A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION, PARTICULARLY
AROUND THE LOWER KEYS. NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY AND TREND UPWARDS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL
TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING WHERE PERIODIC CAUTIONS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WAX AND
WANE BETWEEN SLIGHT AND A CHANCE, WITH A DAY OR TWO DRIER STRETCH
ARRIVING MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. BACKING WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY NEAR EYW THAN MTH. WATERSPOUTS MAY
BE ABLE TO FORM NEAR EYW. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR CLOUD LINES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING
TODAY AS IT STEADILY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL STEADILY FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
THIS CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION ALONG AN ISLAND CLOUD LINE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. EXPECT CONTINUED
SEASONABLE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING AND LULL
DURING THE DAY. SPELLS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND BY WEDNESDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIP TO DIMES OR LESS, LASTING A DAY OR
TWO. EXPECT CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
INCREASED FLOW DOING AN EVEN BETTER JOB AT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO CUBA AND FLORIDA STRAITS. AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BRING WITH IT INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD JUMP UP,
BECOMING AT LEAST A MID TO HIGH CHANCE. THIS IS NOT YET FULLY
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUCH DRIER LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
HOT ON ITS HEELS AND THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DROP BACK TO DIMES OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 84 92 84 / 20 20 10 10
MARATHON 91 83 92 84 / 20 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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