677
FXUS62 KKEY 071839
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS WATERSPOUT FORMATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LOWER KEYS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER CHANCES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY INACTIVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. WINDS BACKED EASTERLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CUBA. ROBUST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
NOT FORMED AS OF 2 PM, AND BREEZES ALONG THE REEF ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE. WATERSPOUTS ARE STILL THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF CONCERN FOR
THE REMAINING AFTERNOON, AND CLOUD LINES CAN FORM VERY RAPIDLY IN
JULY.
FROM SYNOPSIS, BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY AND TREND
UPWARDS FROM LIGHT TO GENTLE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN
THE EVENING WHERE PERIODIC CAUTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF KEYS WATERS. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WAX AND WANE BETWEEN SLIGHT AND A
CHANCE, WITH A DAY OR TWO DRIER STRETCH ARRIVING MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. CLOUD LINE SHOWERS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, THUS VCSH WAS ADDED TO BOTH SITES. CLOUD LINES ARE
EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN WIND
SPEED. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KEYS
TOMORROW, SO EXPECT A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT
LIVED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING
TODAY AS IT STEADILY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL STEADILY FIRM UP OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
THIS CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION ALONG AN ISLAND CLOUD LINE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. EXPECT CONTINUED
SEASONABLE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING AND LULL
DURING THE DAY. SPELLS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND BY WEDNESDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIP TO DIMES OR LESS, LASTING A DAY OR
TWO. EXPECT CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
INCREASED FLOW DOING AN EVEN BETTER JOB AT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO CUBA AND FLORIDA STRAITS. AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BRING WITH IT INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD JUMP UP,
BECOMING AT LEAST A MID TO HIGH CHANCE. THIS IS NOT YET FULLY
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUCH DRIER LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
HOT ON ITS HEELS AND THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DROP BACK TO DIMES OR LESS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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