167
FXUS62 KKEY 080233
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER CHANCES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
OUR KBYX RADAR WAS PARTICULARLY BUSY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA CONVERGED WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THE RESULT WAS POCKETS
OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST "ELECTRIC"
STORMS OCCURRED JUST OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH OF KEY WEST, AND
EVENTUALLY STEERING CLOSER TO THE MARQUESAS KEYS. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY DODGED THE FEW SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES WE HAVE, THE
ASOS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DID REPORT THUNDER AT TIMES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS WORKED THEMSELVES OVER. SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET,
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED, AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PERCOLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. THERE AREN'T ANY OBVIOUS
GHOST BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED ON RADAR, SO THE UNIFORM
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM REIGNITING HERE IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED OVER THE REGION IS ENSURING THAT WE FEEL THE
SUMMER SEASON. AS WE ARE TYPING UP THIS EVENING UPDATE, AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S. THIS MEANS OUR HEAT INDICES ARE STILL NEAR 100F ALONG
THE KEYS, EVEN THOUGH SUNSET WAS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.
PRELIMINARY OBSERVATION DATA SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY WERE IN THE LOWER 90S, BUT OUR HOT SPOT WAS BIG
PINE KEY WITH 96F THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES-19 DUST DETECTION SHOWS SOME SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) NUDGING
INTO THE AREA, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A LID ON POPS. WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AROUND A 20% CHANCE, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHILE
THESE LAST FEW SHOWERS WORK THEMSELVES OUT. NO CHANGES OR UPDATES
ARE PROPOSED FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODESTLY
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN
THE EVENING WHERE PERIODIC CAUTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF KEYS WATERS. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WAX AND WANE BETWEEN SLIGHT AND A
CHANCE, WITH A DAY OR TWO DRIER STRETCH ARRIVING MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH ONLY FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS BASED NEAR FL025. ISOLATED POCKETS OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AROUND 10% TO 20% CHANCE,
NEAR THE KEYS, BUT WE ARE OPTING TO KEEP THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
DRY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 92 84 92 / 20 10 10 0
MARATHON 83 92 84 92 / 20 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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