342
FXUS62 KKEY 080759
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
359 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
- A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MID WEEK AND DIMINISH SHOWER CHANCES FOR AROUND A DAY.
HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 AROUND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY AN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT REACHES WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE GULF. THE FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN NEBULOUS WITH WEAK RIDGING IN CONTROL. THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS ALMOST
EXACTLY NORMAL AT 1.78 INCHES. THERE WAS AMPLE CAPE AND A LITTLE
INHIBITION. THE OVERALL DOMINANCE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS KEPT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
JUST A FEW CELLS ON OUR DEEP GULF ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
WARM IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HELP
DRIVE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. A
FEW HOURS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND TEND TO LULL DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF LOWER LEVEL
INHIBITION AND DRYING BASED JUST ABOVE 900 MB. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHT TO NIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND INTO CUBA. AN ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR GENERAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH, THEY STILL DEPICT SUBTLE
AND MESSY LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SWATHES OF
INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES TO PICK UP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARDS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS
FURTHER NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
TO COME DOWN. WEAKENING RIDGING WILL TRY TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEEP BREEZES GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA HAS NOW LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WITH
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY WILL HELP TO FRESHEN BREEZES
ACROSS KEYS WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZES WILL TEND TO
PEAK IN THE EVENING HOURS AND LULL DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST
CAUTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED PERIODICALLY FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS
WATERS THROUGH THIS STRETCH. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS THIS
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 84 92 84 / 10 10 0 20
MARATHON 92 84 92 83 / 10 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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