636
FXUS62 KKEY 081410
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SAL
IS ON TRACK TO LIFT OUT OF THE KEYS BY THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS WEEK. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHILE A LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A DRIER PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING. A GLANCE AT THE SKY INDICATES A WASHED OUT, OR MILKY,
COLOR AMIDST A GENERAL LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THE MORNING 12Z KKEY
SOUNDING OFFERED AN EXPLANATION, THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVED OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE SOUNDING SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION JUST ABOVE 4000 FEET AND A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO
700 MB. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIMSS ALSO SHOW A DISTINCT
LAYER OF DRIER AIR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE THE SAL WILL
DEFINE PART OF THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, THAT IS NOT THE ONLY
WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE. BREEZES ACROSS THE REEF FRESHENED TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE BEFORE SUNRISE. LAST NIGHT'S SLIGHT NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COULD LET MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN SUM,
RELATIVELY EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE, SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM THE SAHARAN AIR. NO CHANGES
ARE NECESSARY FOR THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
A SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA HAS NOW LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WITH
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY WILL HELP TO FRESHEN BREEZES
ACROSS KEYS WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZES WILL TEND TO
PEAK IN THE EVENING HOURS AND LULL DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST
CAUTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED PERIODICALLY FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS
WATERS THROUGH THIS STRETCH. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS THIS
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, WINDS WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA STRENGTHENS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH BY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENINGS AND LULL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE DAY. AT LEAST MARINE CAUTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED TO MOST KEYS
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE BACK
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHT OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT TREND SHARPLY UPWARDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY REDUCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS, BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
MVFR VIS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HELP
DRIVE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. A
FEW HOURS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND TEND TO LULL DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF LOWER LEVEL
INHIBITION AND DRYING BASED JUST ABOVE 900 MB. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHT TO NIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND INTO CUBA. AN ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR GENERAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH, THEY STILL DEPICT SUBTLE
AND MESSY LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SWATHES OF
INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES TO PICK UP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARDS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS
FURTHER NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
TO COME DOWN. WEAKENING RIDGING WILL TRY TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEEP BREEZES GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 84 91 83 / 20 10 0 20
MARATHON 90 84 90 83 / 20 0 0 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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