609
FXUS62 KKEY 081838
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SAL
IS ON TRACK TO LIFT OUT OF THE KEYS BY THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS WEEK. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHILE A LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER REDUCED SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. KBYX RADAR SCANS HIGHLIGHTED STRAY, FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AROUND THE KEYS. GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS THAT WERE ABLE TO FORM
GENERATED GUSTS CAPABLE OF 20 KNOTS. BREEZES ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM LIGHT TO GENTLE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND
LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUS, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYSIDE AND
GULFSIDE WATERS, HAWK CHANNEL, AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FROM SYNOPSIS, WINDS WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA STRENGTHENS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENINGS AND LULL
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST MARINE CAUTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED
TO MOST KEYS WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO EASE BACK GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT TREND
SHARPLY UPWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH. DUST FROM THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL REDUCE VIS SLIGHTLY AT BOTH TERMINALS, BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY MVFR VIS WILL DEVELOP UNLESS A STRAY SHOWER MOVES OVER
THE TERMINAL. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HELP
DRIVE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. A
FEW HOURS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND TEND TO LULL DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF LOWER LEVEL
INHIBITION AND DRYING BASED JUST ABOVE 900 MB. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHT TO NIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND INTO CUBA. AN ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR GENERAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH, THEY STILL DEPICT SUBTLE
AND MESSY LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SWATHES OF
INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES TO PICK UP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARDS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS
FURTHER NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
TO COME DOWN. WEAKENING RIDGING WILL TRY TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEEP BREEZES GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 91 83 91 / 10 0 20 30
MARATHON 84 90 83 90 / 0 0 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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