133
FXUS62 KKEY 100146
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
946 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BETTER MOISTURE IS RETURNING WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30
PERCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS WEEK. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHILE A LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KEYS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SAHARAN AIR LAYER FOR
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
A WARM AND MODESTLY BREEZY EVENING IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AREA AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY REFLECT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL NEAR 100F.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, MODERATE BREEZES NEAR 15 MPH ARE
PREVAILING, SO THE AIR ISN’T GOING TO DEVELOP THAT STAGNANT, HEAVY
FEELING THAT CAN HAPPEN WHEN WINDS ARE LIGHT. THE ASOS AT IN KEY
WEST HAS REPORTED FREQUENT WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN MEANINGFUL SHOWERS WILL GET GOING ACROSS
THE AREA AS WE ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (30%) OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT OUR KBYX RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE VERY DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS.
HOWEVER, A DISORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CUBAN COASTLINE AS WE TYPE THIS, AND IS
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 20 KNOTS (OR NEAR 23 MPH)
WHICH WOULD PUT IT WITHIN OUR MARINE ZONES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
HI RES GUIDANCE ISN’T FINDING MUCH AGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
OUR WATERS AND APPROACHES THE ISLAND CHAIN, BUT THE GUIDANCE THAT
RESOLVED THE COMPLEX OVER CUBA DOES SHOW THE ISLAND CHAIN SEEING
SOME RAIN DROPS EVENTUALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOES-19
DUST CHANNEL DOESN’T SHOW A NOTEWORTHY SAL ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING POINTS TO SOME RESIDUAL
SAL LINGERING. THE MEAN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE VERTICAL IS
LIKELY ADVECTING THE TAIL END OF THE SAL OUT OF THE AREA, AND
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO NURTURE THIS ACTIVITY. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALSO
NOTABLE ON SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER. A SWATH OF
SURFACE TO 700 MB VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THE INHERITED 30% POPS SEEM
REASONABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO WE’LL GO AHEAD AND LET THAT
RIDE WITH THE DISCLAIMER THAT SHOWERS MAY FALL APART JUST SHY OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS DUE TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. BREEZES MAY BRIEFLY FRESHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR
A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME IN THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL WAX AND WANE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATER PART OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 939 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH ONLY FEW TO
OCCASIONAL SCT DECKS AROUND FL025. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER
SUNRISE, GUSTS SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT. SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CHANCES INCREASE TO NEARLY 50%
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SORT OUT
IMPACTS WITH ANY PRECISION, SO OPTING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD VCSH
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 93 / 30 50 40 10
MARATHON 83 90 83 90 / 30 50 40 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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