917
FXUS62 KKEY 100809
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
409 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SLIGHT AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A WETTER STRETCH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS DRIVING A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FIRST ROUND
IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE KEYS TONIGHT. A SQUALL RECENTLY
MOVED THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS AND FURTHER ACTIVITY IS CONGEALING
OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A NARROW BUT HEALTHY ATLANTIC RIDGE
REACHING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR
90, LOWS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE SECOND TROUGH WILL BE CARRIED WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL
GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HENCE, MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
BEING ADVERTISED. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE POPS MAY BE RAISED
FURTHER IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, KEEPING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE KEY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS WITH LITTLE TO NO DAY TO DAY TREND EVIDENT.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO MUCH DRIER LOWER LEVEL INVADING THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES IN. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INHIBITION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIP TO SLIM OR
LOWER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME POORLY DEFINED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO TREND SLOWLY DOWNWARDS. SURFACE TEMPS
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS
KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE EVENING AND
LULLING DURING THE DAY. BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LUMBER
ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
SETTING THE TABLE FOR MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROUND OR TWO OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND IN TO NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WASHES
OUT AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS INVADE THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. WITH
THAT SAID, CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE SHARPLY TO HIGH CHANCE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE MAY DELIVER GUSTY WINDS
AND SHORT SPELLS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,
BREEZES WILL BE MOSTLY MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 93 83 / 50 40 10 0
MARATHON 90 83 90 84 / 50 30 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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