400
FXUS62 KKEY 101439
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SLIGHT AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AN ACCELERATED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS JUST JUICED ENOUGH THAT
WE HAVE SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN VERY BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS RACING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OUT INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH AXIS OF
AN EASTERLY UNDULATION IS PUSHING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING
AND WILL REACH OUR WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FAVORING THE COASTAL
WATERS. NONETHELESS, THE FLORIDA KEYS LOOK TO BE IN THE CROSS-HAIRS
FOR SOME OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HAVE MADE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. BREEZES REMAIN A
LITTLE ELEVATED ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS
A RESULT, HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT
WE COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
SURGE DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, MADE NO OTHER CHANGES. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD PACK A PUNCH AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HAWK
CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL HOLD ON TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES AND ONLY BRIEFLY SLACKEN DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING AN EASTERLY UNDULATION TO MOVE
WEST OUT OF THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN
OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AND CONFUSED
SEAS. BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECTING WINDS TO
QUICKLY SLACKEN BACK TO GENTLE TO MODERATE.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT EYW MAY SLACKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER,
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT AND MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLAND TERMINALS. PASSING CONVECTION WILL
BRING MVFR/SUB-IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A WETTER STRETCH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS DRIVING A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FIRST ROUND
IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE KEYS TONIGHT. A SQUALL RECENTLY
MOVED THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS AND FURTHER ACTIVITY IS CONGEALING
OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A NARROW BUT HEALTHY ATLANTIC RIDGE
REACHING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR
90, LOWS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE SECOND TROUGH WILL BE CARRIED WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL
GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HENCE, MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
BEING ADVERTISED. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE POPS MAY BE RAISED
FURTHER IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, KEEPING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE KEY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS WITH LITTLE TO NO DAY TO DAY TREND EVIDENT.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO MUCH DRIER LOWER LEVEL INVADING THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES IN. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INHIBITION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIP TO SLIM OR
LOWER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME POORLY DEFINED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO TREND SLOWLY DOWNWARDS. SURFACE TEMPS
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 93 83 / 50 40 10 0
MARATHON 90 83 90 84 / 50 30 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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