615
FXUS62 KKEY 101922
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
322 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SLIGHT AT BEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THE SOUTHEAST GULF, AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS. AN EASTERLY
UNDULATION IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING AND TRANSITING OUR
WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE WEST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INITIALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS, WE WILL SEE BREEZES FURTHER
SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING A RISK OF MVFR TO SUB-IFR
CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A WETTER STRETCH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS DRIVING A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FIRST ROUND
IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE KEYS TONIGHT. A SQUALL RECENTLY
MOVED THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS AND FURTHER ACTIVITY IS CONGEALING
OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A NARROW BUT HEALTHY ATLANTIC RIDGE
REACHING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR
90, LOWS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE SECOND TROUGH WILL BE CARRIED WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL
GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HENCE, MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
BEING ADVERTISED. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE POPS MAY BE RAISED
FURTHER IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, KEEPING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE KEY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS WITH LITTLE TO NO DAY TO DAY TREND EVIDENT.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO MUCH DRIER LOWER LEVEL INVADING THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES IN. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INHIBITION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIP TO SLIM OR
LOWER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME POORLY DEFINED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO TREND SLOWLY DOWNWARDS. SURFACE TEMPS
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 93 83 92 / 40 10 10 0
MARATHON 83 90 84 90 / 40 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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