017
FXUS62 KKEY 110159
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WILL DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SLIGHT AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THIS MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT, BUT WEATHER HAS BEEN A LITTLE BUSY
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING SHIFT. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CUBAN CONVECTION PROVIDED THE SURFACE LIFT
TO INITIATE CONVECTION, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDED THE
SUPPORT NEEDED TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY. WE DON'T HAVE A
REASONABLE ESTIMATE AS TO HOW MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
PRODUCED SINCE ALL OF THIS STARTED, BUT IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE US IF
THERE HAVE BEEN THOUSANDS OF STRIKES OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY.
NOT ONLY HAVE THESE THUNDERSTORMS BEEN PARTICULARLY ELECTRIC, THEY
HAVE ALSO BEEN HEFTY WIND PRODUCERS. SOME OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS
THAT WERE RECORDED TONIGHT WERE AT MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
WITH A GUST OF 48 MPH, OR 42 KNOTS, AND AT THE SAND KEY LIGHT
C-MAN STATION WITH A GUST OF 46 MPH, OR 40 KNOTS. WE ARE SURE
THERE WERE MORE GUSTS SIMILAR TO THIS, BUT THERE WERE NO
OBSERVATIONS SITES TO RECORD THEM. UNFORTUNATELY, CONDITIONS WERE
UNFAVORABLE FOR A RADIOSONDE RELEASE THIS EVENING, SO WE DON'T HAVE
A SOUNDING THAT OFFERS REAL TIME DATA IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE.
BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP, IT'S A SAFE BET THAT THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED, AND JUST ICY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONGOING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL OF THIS RAIN HAS HELPED TO COOL THINGS
OFF JUST A LITTLE BIT. WHILE TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON
WERE ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 100S, OUR CURRENT AUTOMATED SITES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OUR WARMEST LOCATION IS STILL THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KEY LARGO WHERE THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE IS
86F, BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL APPROACHING THAT PART OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE CURRENT MESS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK OVER THE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY CALM DOWN, AND THINGS
SHOULD LOOK ENTIRELY DIFFERENT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ROUGHLY 30% TO 40%. THIS MAY SEEM A LITTLE LOW AT FACE VALUE CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ONGOING AT THIS TIME, BUT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, IT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE VALUE. NO
CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE CONSIDERING THAT
THE BULK OF THE POPS ARE ONGOING NOW, AND WE WILL CALM DOWN
EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND SEAS WILL BE ROUGHER AND HIGHER
IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, GENTLE TO
MODESTLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL, AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW, LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT, THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND OCCASIONAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY DUE TO LOWERED CIGS. VERY ISOLATED POCKETS
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LIFR VIS TO EITHER TERMINAL, BUT
THIS LIKELIHOOD DIMINISHES GREATLY AFTER 05Z. MOST OF THE EFFICIENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF WELL BEFORE SUNRISE,
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE DAY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 93 83 92 / 40 10 10 0
MARATHON 83 90 84 90 / 40 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP/BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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