012
FXUS62 KKEY 110704
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
304 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SLIGHT AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BROUGHT NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
45-50 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS LAST NIGHT, THE
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS INTENSE WITH JUST
LINGERING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IN PLACE AND MUCH LOWER WINDS
AS A RESULT AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIVEN BY A VARIETY OF
FACTORS SUCH AS A TUTT ANALYZED AT 250MB CENTERED JUST WEST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, A LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE STRAITS AHEAD OF THE TUTT, AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CUBAN CONVECTION. THE LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE AND WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF THEREAFTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
SAHARAN DUST. THUS, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY AFTER THE
MORNING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 90S.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THE SAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER ROBUST WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF DUST ARRIVING LATER TODAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
THOUGH THE DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL NOT PEAK UNTIL SUNDAY OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, MODELS SHOW PWATS IN THE COMING DAYS FALLING
TO VALUES AROUND 1.50" OR POSSIBLY A BIT LESS AT TIMES, WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. AS TO BE EXPECTED, THE NATURE OF THIS VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL YIELD LOW TO VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
COMING DAYS WITH POPS LESS THAN 15% THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL MAKE SLOW WESTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS CUBA INTO NEXT WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MID WEEK. IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGHOUT THIS TIME AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE KEYS. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A WARM AND
RATHER DRY WEEK FOR MID JULY STANDARDS GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW
MOISTURE DEPTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROBUST SIGNAL WITH THIS NEXT
SAL EVENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL TYPICALLY PEAK IN THE
EVENINGS AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION, WHILE SOME BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS SHOULD TAPER OFF
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT ANY IMPACTS TO
VSBYS WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
ESE AROUND 10 KTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....RG
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