676
FXUS62 KKEY 111455
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SLIGHT AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AN EXTENSIVE LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE
OF LAST NIGHT'S RAIN/THUNDER EVENT. MEANWHILE, BELOW THIS
ALTOSTRATUS DECK, THE NEXT SAL PLUME HAS ALREADY BEGUN MOVING IN.
IT HAS MADE FOR QUITE THE INTERESTING SOUNDING WITH A MIXED LAYER
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 MB TO AROUND 650 MB WITH A
NEARLY FULLY SATURATED LAYER ABOVE IT. WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A RARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY JULY DAY FOR THE KEYS IF THE ALTOSTRATUS IS NOT
ABLE TO MIX OUT WITH THE DRIER SAL AIR BELOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS
HAVE CERTAINLY CALMED DOWN AND ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH. IN
FACT, IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MIX OUT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO LEAVE THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. AS SUCH, MADE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT OF
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL BRIEF
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR TODAY, MAINLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN- FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EXTENSIVE ALTOSTRATUS DECK
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN GENTLE
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BROUGHT NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
45-50 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS LAST NIGHT, THE
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS INTENSE WITH JUST
LINGERING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IN PLACE AND MUCH LOWER WINDS
AS A RESULT AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIVEN BY A VARIETY OF
FACTORS SUCH AS A TUTT ANALYZED AT 250MB CENTERED JUST WEST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, A LOWER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE STRAITS AHEAD OF THE TUTT, AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CUBAN CONVECTION. THE LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE AND WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF THEREAFTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
SAHARAN DUST. THUS, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY AFTER THE
MORNING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 90S.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THE SAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER ROBUST WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF DUST ARRIVING LATER TODAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
THOUGH THE DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL NOT PEAK UNTIL SUNDAY OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, MODELS SHOW PWATS IN THE COMING DAYS FALLING
TO VALUES AROUND 1.50" OR POSSIBLY A BIT LESS AT TIMES, WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. AS TO BE EXPECTED, THE NATURE OF THIS VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL YIELD LOW TO VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
COMING DAYS WITH POPS LESS THAN 15% THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL MAKE SLOW WESTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS CUBA INTO NEXT WEEK AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MID WEEK. IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGHOUT THIS TIME AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE KEYS. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A WARM AND
RATHER DRY WEEK FOR MID JULY STANDARDS GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW
MOISTURE DEPTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROBUST SIGNAL WITH THIS NEXT
SAL EVENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 93 83 92 83 / 10 10 0 0
MARATHON 90 84 90 83 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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