640
FXUS62 KKEY 121432
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 109 THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHT AT BEST.
- AS WE APPROACH CLOSER TO THE NEW MOON, TIDE LEVELS WILL RISE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A NEARLY RINSE AND REPEAT START TO THE DAY AS YESTERDAY. WE HAVE A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ROOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS BETWEEN 900 MB
AND ABOUT 600 MB. ABOVE THIS LAYER WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A THIN
LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 500 MB WHICH HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LAYER OF
ALTOSTRATUS THAT HAS BEEN MUTING THE SUN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
MOISTURE IS FINALLY ERODING AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
AND AS SUCH, WE CONTINUE TO SEE OUR WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.
THE DECREASING CLOUD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE IT
SETS. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND. OTHERWISE, SAL WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO NEAR NIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CYCLE OF
DAYTIME LULLS AND OVERNIGHT PEAKS TO OCCUR HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION, A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
A RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL
HOLD OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
RECENT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
STUBBORN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND SO FAR IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE. THIS
GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SAL IN THE AREA BUT MOISTURE ALOFT HAS BEEN SLOW
TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT
ANALYZED AT 250MB NEAR EASTERN CUBA. THIS TUTT WILL MAKE SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN/CUBA BEFORE EVENTUALLY DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE SAL
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS FORECAST TO LINGER WELL INTO THE
NEW WEEK OVER THE REGION BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF
ATMOSPHERIC PARTICLE MOVEMENT FROM THE NASA GEOS PRODUCT. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST WITH POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15%. THUS, A RATHER DRY WEEK IS
IN STORE FOR MID JULY STANDARDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THIS IS WHETHER OR NOT SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE
TUTT CAN OVERCOME THE LIMITING FACTORS FROM THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE FULL CONTROL OVER THE AREA. ONE DAY IN
PARTICULAR THAT MAY HAVE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL POTENTIAL COULD BE
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TUTT WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NBM IS
NOT TOO ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME BUT THE IDEA
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, NOTABLY THE EPS. GIVEN
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TUTT AND THUS
WHERE THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MATERIALIZE, WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADDING MEASURABLE POPS AT THIS TIME BUT THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE, IN
ADDITION TO THE MOSTLY DRY WEEK AHEAD, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES EACH DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND
90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN ADDITION, HEAT
INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 103- 108 EACH DAY AND MAY
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF
LOCATIONS MAY BE TOO LOW TO CONSIDER ANY HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 90 83 89 83 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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