328
FXUS62 KKEY 130225
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 109 DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE KEYS THIS WEEK,
KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHT AT BEST.
- AS WE APPROACH CLOSER TO THE NEW MOON, TIDE LEVELS WILL RISE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
PERSISTENT PUDDLES IN THE TYPICAL LOW SPOTS DURING HIGH TIDE
ARE LIKELY SALTWATER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
MEAN LAYER ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 00Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED 594 DM AT 500 MB
(ALSO AT KXMR AND KMFL), ONLY SURPASSED BY 595 DM AT MERIDA, MX.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A ONE-WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS, FEATURING A RIDGE OUT WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS CUBA, FLORIDA AND THE GULF, THERE ARE
SCREAMING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. DOWN LOW,
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES WEST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SATELLITE DERIVED TPW MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND OUR RAOB REVEAL THE
REAL STORY, THE POTENT SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE KEYS. THIS LAYER IS THICK AND EXTENDS FROM 550 MB TO 930 MB,
FEATURING SUPER STEEP LAPSE RATES (>9 DEGC/KM) AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 25 DEGC. THIS IS ABOUT AS SALY AS IT GETS. CENTRAL
FLORIDA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE PLUME, AND VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EVENTUALLY BECAME TOO HOSTILE AND THE
STORMS FIZZLED NEAR THE EVERGLADES. THE LAST REMNANTS ARE HEADED
OFFSHORE NEAR MARCO ISLAND. GIVEN THE SAMPLED VERTICAL PROFILE,
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 80S. THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE A NOCTURNAL SURGE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS, WITH THE REMAINING MARINE LOCATIONS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE. THE INHERITED FORECAST HANDLES THINGS WELL AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION, A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR AND GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. ANY SHEATHS OF CLOUDS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE
NOT LOW CLOUDS, BUT HIGH ALTO BASED NEAR 16 KFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 83 89 83 89 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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