219
FXUS62 KKEY 261750
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK,
PEAKING TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
- HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON FOR
SOME FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
KEYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES
GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR DUE TO SCT TO BKN SKIES
NEAR FL030. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AT EITHER ISLAND
TERMINAL WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 27/00Z AND THEN AGAIN AFTER
27/06Z. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL IFR VIS, BUT
THAT WILL NEED TO BE AMENDED INTO THE PACKAGE LATER ONCE ACTIVITY
INCREASES IN COVERAGE. BACKGROUND WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NEAR 5 KNOTS, AND WILL ASSUME A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING
IN ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES
PEAK TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA MAXIMIZES. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES,
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90
DEGREES WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 108 DEGREES
WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO 110 DEGREES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LIGHT
BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
FLORIDA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND BECOMING GENTLE TO MODESTLY MODERATE. POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CRAWL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER AND WATERS WILL BE ROUGHER IN, AND NEAR, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZES WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS WEEK.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE OF A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN STARTING TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 90 82 90 / 50 60 40 40
MARATHON 82 90 81 90 / 60 60 40 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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