332
FXUS62 KKEY 271748
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
148 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE MIDWEEK.
- HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON FOR
SOME FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
KEYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR,
BUT POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GENERAL AREA MAY
OCCASIONALLY TRIGGER MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. REDUCED CATEGORIES
WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY LOW CIGS, BUT HEAVIER RAIN COULD
RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AS WELL. OPTING TO KEEP TAFS VFR WITH
A GENERAL VCSH OR VCTS, BUT LAST MINUTE AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IF CELLS POP UP NEAR EITHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND
WILL ASSUME A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AFTER SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND WILL KEEP MOISTURE
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL (40%). ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING DOWN FROM
CANADA SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT TROUGHING ALREADY IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
IS QUITE UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DUE TO THIS, IT WILL
KEEP A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
THE MOISTURE FOCUSES ACROSS THIS AREA. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE KEYS DUE TO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE HEAT WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY
AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME MID
80S FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES.
BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE AS THE HIGH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA ACT IN TANDEM WITH ONE
ANOTHER LEADING TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY FOR
MID WEEK. AFTER MID WEEK, THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME AND BREEZES
RELAX BACK TO LIGHT TO GENTLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WIDELY SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS/ROUGHER WATERS AT TIMES
ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR MARINE ZONES TODAY. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS, BLINDING DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WORKED OVER. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY,
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TONIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 90 82 91 / 30 40 20 20
MARATHON 81 91 82 91 / 50 50 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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