389
FXUS62 KKEY 281854
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
254 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENINF WILL FAVOR WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPMENT. BOATERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY IF
VENTURING OUT.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE OF THE UPPER KEYS
DUE TO A BRIEF FRESHENING OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
- HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON FOR
SOME FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
KEYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS, BUT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY BE OBSERVED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD, DUE TO LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY
LOWER CATEGORIES OBSERVED AT EITHER SITE SHOULD BE VERY SHORT
LIVED. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN EXTENDED INTO THE KEYS FOR ONE MORE
DAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL AT 40%. LOOKING AT THE
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
NORMALIZED ANOMALY, THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL ACT IN TANDEM WITH ONE ANOTHER
CREATING FOR A SQUEEZE PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THIS LOOKS TO
PLAY OUT WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART AND THE KEYS
GET TREATED TO INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AS IT GETS FUNNELED IN BY
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO GET STUCK WITH
NO WHERE TO GO AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE KEYS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE, STARTING TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES FALL TO SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH SOME PERIODS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEING DRIED OUT
COMPLETELY. SINCE WE WILL HAVE MUCH DRIER AIR OVER US IN THE
COMING DAYS, THE HEAT WILL BECOME THE CENTER OF THE STORY AGAIN.
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES AND IN THE LOWER 90S AT TIMES AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL CREATE FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES. AS OF NOW, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW IT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO NOT PROVIDE FOR MUCH RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME CASES.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ALSO CREATE FOR
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEND TO
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, ESPECIALLY THE UPPER
KEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT BREEZES OF EVEN
VARIABLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TROUGHING JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE
TO REACH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY
AND BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BROAD CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA/GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST, BUT MAY
VARIABLE AT TIMES. BREEZES WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TOWARDS
MID WEEK BEFORE SLACKENING BACK TO LIGHT TO GENTLE BY LATE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 90 83 90 / 10 10 0 10
MARATHON 82 90 82 91 / 10 10 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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