782
FXUS62 KKEY 291501
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1101 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A REVERSE CLOUD LINE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY DEVELOPING
CLOUD LINE WILL TEND TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE OF THE UPPER KEYS
DUE TO A BRIEF FRESHENING OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY ON THIS FIRST DAY OF THE 2026
LOBSTER SPORT SEASON SAMPLED A WELL-MIXED ADIABATICALLY LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 940 MB, CAPPED BY A WEAK TEMPERATURE
INVERSION, AND THEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR ABOVE. GOES-19 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ONLY DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CUMULI
STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT MARINE ZONES IN
THE MEAN MODERATE TO SOUTHWESTERLIES. THESE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE A
RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE MID- ATLANTIC AND A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UNDER AMPLE SOLAR
INSOLATION, LAND-BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE KEYS ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F ALREADY AT THIS EARLY AFTERNOON
HOUR.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING UP ANOTHER
FEW DEGREES. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEYS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MEAN WIND SPEEDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR
ABOVE 950 MB, CURRENT REASONING SUGGESTS ANY CLOUD STREAMER
FORMING ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL BE WEAK AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATING. NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSTED FOR THE
EASTERN MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS, INCLUDING HAWK
CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, A BROKEN CLOUD
LINE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD LINE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT
FORMATION. FROM SYNOPSIS, TROUGHING COMBINED WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE
UPPER KEYS. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK NEBULOUS FLOW TAKES OVER. A COL REGION
WILL SET UP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF VARIABLE BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHILE A BROKEN CLOUD LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
LINE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EYW AND MTH ISLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT/RG
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT/RG
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT/RG
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